How to Create an Investment Thesis Doc in Notion

Start with a one-paragraph executive summary that states the opportunity in plain language: what you want to build, for whom, and why it matters to the business. Follow with the strategic context: what market trend, user behavior, or competitive pressure creates urgency. Include a 'Why Now' section explaining what has changed that makes this investment timely — the best thesis documents explain not just why something is worth doing but why it is worth doing in this quarter.

• Write the executive summary as if the reader will only read this one paragraph
• Anchor the 'Why Now' in observable data: market shifts, user behavior changes, or competitive moves
• Include the investment size in terms of team-weeks and opportunity cost

Create a Notion table listing every assumption your thesis depends on. Each row should have: the Assumption statement, Confidence Level (High, Medium, Low), Evidence supporting it, and how you could Validate it. Be honest about low-confidence assumptions — these are the bets within your bet. Common assumptions to articulate: market size, user willingness to pay, technical feasibility, competitive response timeline, and team capacity to execute.

• List at least 5-7 core assumptions your investment depends on
• Rate each assumption's confidence level honestly, not optimistically
• For each low-confidence assumption, describe a specific validation step and timeline

Create a section that compiles all evidence supporting the investment. Organize evidence into categories: quantitative data (usage metrics, market research, survey results), qualitative signals (user interviews, support tickets, sales call themes), competitive intelligence (what competitors are doing or not doing), and analogies (similar bets that worked at other companies). Link to source documents and embed charts where possible. Be explicit about the strength of each evidence type — user interview quotes are directional, not statistical.

• Embed relevant charts and data tables from your analytics platform
• Link to specific user interview transcripts or survey results
• Include a 'Strength of Evidence' rating for each data point (strong, moderate, anecdotal)

Create a milestone table with three phases: leading indicators (first 30 days), intermediate outcomes (60-90 days), and success criteria (6 months). For each milestone, specify the metric, the target value, and the measurement method. Leading indicators should be engagement signals (adoption rate, activation, retention). Success criteria should be business outcomes (revenue, retention impact, cost reduction). Include a 'minimum viable outcome' — the threshold below which the investment should be considered a failure.

• Define 2-3 leading indicators that you will check within the first month
• Set intermediate milestones at 60 and 90 days with specific metric targets
• Define the minimum viable outcome: the worst acceptable result that still justifies the investment

Create a risk matrix with columns for Risk Description, Likelihood (Low/Medium/High), Impact (Low/Medium/High), Mitigation Strategy, and Risk Owner. Include execution risks (team capacity, technical complexity), market risks (competitor moves, timing), and adoption risks (user willingness to change behavior). For each high-likelihood or high-impact risk, the mitigation strategy must be concrete and actionable, not 'we will monitor the situation.'

• Identify at least 6-8 risks across execution, market, and adoption categories
• Assign a specific owner to each high-severity risk
• For the top 3 risks, describe the specific trigger that would activate the mitigation plan

This is the section most investment theses omit but the most important one for accountability. Define the specific conditions under which you would stop the investment. Examples: 'If adoption is below X after 30 days,' or 'If customer acquisition cost exceeds Y by month 3.' Kill criteria prevent the sunk cost fallacy from keeping a failing investment alive. Document who has the authority to invoke the kill criteria and what the off-ramp process looks like.

• Define 2-3 kill criteria with specific numeric thresholds and timeframes
• Specify who has authority to invoke a kill decision
• Describe the off-ramp process: how the team and resources would be redeployed

Create a linked database view at the bottom of the thesis document that tracks milestones as they mature. Add a 'Thesis Reviews' section with scheduled dates for 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day reviews. At each review, the thesis owner updates the milestone status, notes any assumption changes, and makes a recommendation: continue, pivot, or kill. This transforms the thesis from a one-time document into a living accountability tool.